The possibility of Vladimir Putin being overthrown has been the subject of much speculation in recent months. The Russian president’s popularity has plummeted since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February, and there have been growing calls for his resignation. Putin’s supporters say that it’s all propaganda of the west and there’s no such situation in Russia. Let’s see whether their claim is true or not and how many possibilities of Putin’s overthrow.
Factors Leading To Putin’s Downfall
There are a number of factors that could contribute to Putin’s downfall. Some of them are as follows.
Recession
The Russian economy is in a deep recession, and the sanctions imposed by the West are only making things worse. This could lead to widespread dissatisfaction among the Russian people, which could eventually translate into political unrest.
Grip On Power
Putin’s grip on power is not as strong as it once was. He has purged his inner circle of potential rivals, but there are still a number of powerful figures who could challenge him for power. If these figures were to unite against Putin, they could potentially overthrow him.
Military Weaknesses
The Russian military is not as strong as it was thought to be. The invasion of Ukraine has exposed a number of weaknesses in the Russian military, and it is possible that the military could become disillusioned with Putin if the war continues to go badly.
Factors That Could Prevent Putin From Being Overthrown
Of course, there are also a number of factors that could prevent Putin from being overthrown. Some of these factors are also as follows.
Support By Security Forces
He still has the support of the security services, and he is likely to use force to suppress any attempt to remove him from power. And this is most probably the biggest advantage that he has till now.
Support By Russian People
The Russian people have a long history of submitting to authoritarian rule, and it is possible that they would not be willing to overthrow Putin even if they were unhappy with his leadership.
Strong Allies
Support from several strong allies like central Asian states, Belarus, Chechnya, and let’s say China makes Putin strong enough to stay in power. It is because they perfectly know that Putin is their only lifeline so they don’t wanna lose it.
Recent developments
In recent months, there have been a number of developments that have raised the possibility of Putin being overthrown, in March, a group of Russian oligarchs called on Putin to end the war in Ukraine. In April, a group of Russian generals reportedly tried to remove Putin from power. And in May, there were reports of widespread protests against Putin in Russia.
In July 2023, there were reports of a mutiny within the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company. The mutiny is significant because it suggests that even Putin’s most loyal supporters are starting to lose faith in him. The Wagner Group is a highly secretive organisation, and it is rare for any information about its internal workings to leak out. The fact that there was a mutiny at all suggests that there is serious discontent within the group.
However, it is important to note that these developments do not necessarily mean that Putin is about to be overthrown. The oligarchs and generals who have spoken out against Putin are still a minority. And the protests against Putin have been relatively small. Additionally, Putin has shown no signs of backing down from the war in Ukraine, and he is likely to continue to crack down on dissent.
Wrap Up
The possibility of Putin being overthrown is real. But it is still too early to say whether it will actually happen. The Russian president still has a strong grip on power, but the events of the past few months have shown that his position is not as secure as it once was. Only time will tell whether Putin will be able to weather the storm and remain in power, or whether he will be forced to step down.
